Amidst Range-Bound WTI Crude, Lesson From Hypothetical XLE Trade

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda!  What could have been $9.93 in profit in a hypothetical XLE trade is now only worth $1.83.  Culprit?  Trying to play it too cute plus greed. Since peaking on January 25 at $66.66/barrel, spot West Texas Intermediate … Continued

WTI Crude Looks Tired – Trade Brewing In XLE

Spot West Texas Intermediate crude, up 54-plus percent since last June alone, is giving out signs of fatigue. Non-commercials have been on the right side of this trade.  As they usually are.  These traders follow the trend, and the trend … Continued

WTI Crude Resolves 12-Week Consolidation With Breakdown – Non-Commercials’ Next Move Crucial

Spot West Texas Intermediate crude had a lousy last week, collapsing 9.1 percent as well as losing both 50- and 200-day moving averages. On a closing basis, it also lost the rising trend line from the lows of February last … Continued

Record U.S. Crude Inventory + Non-Commercials’ Record WTI Net Longs – Bulls Face Crude Reality

Ten and counting.  That is the number of weeks spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($53.78) has now gone flat. Oil bulls hope this is consolidation before another leg higher.  Since oil bottomed at $26.05 on February 11 last year, it … Continued

XLE’s Path Of Least Resistance Down — At Least Near Term

Since spot West Texas Intermediate crude bottomed intra-day at $26.05/barrel on February 11th and began to rally, resistance points have fallen one after another.  First went $34-$35, then $40, followed by $42-$43 and then $47-$48 (Chart 1), rallying past both … Continued

Repercussions If WTI Is Able To Build On Monday’s Huge Intra-Day Reversal

Quite an anti-climax!  Sunday’s Doha oil talks, that is.  Even more so is how markets reacted on Monday. The much-hyped and much-hoped-for agreement for an output freeze/cut failed to materialize.  Crude oil had rallied strongly into these talks, so a … Continued

Big Stock Move Upon Us? Why Profits/Buybacks Likely Hold Key

Is the S&P 500 index (2035.94) resting or struggling at resistance? Either way, the rather lethargic action the past few sessions is not completely out of the ordinary given the move it has had off February 11th lows.  From low … Continued

Crude Oil ↓ 62%, Rig Counts ↓ 66%, Yet Production And Stocks Near All-Time Highs

In the past year and a half, crude oil has gone through a lot. It is not often a commodity of oil’s significance drops 61 percent in nine months.  Yet that is what happened to spot West Texas Intermediate crude … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 27, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Once again, the Fed took a pass.  Its decision this week not to raise interest rates was expected.  What was not expected was … Continued