NYSE margin debt dropped 2.5 percent month-over-month in December, to $461.2 billion. The S&P 500 declined 1.8 percent in the month. Regardless if margin debt followed stocks lower or it was the other way round, what matters is that momentum … Continued
In the latest reporting period, U.S. equity shorts made it big. But rather than covering, they added more. It remains to be seen if they will continue to win out or are setting themselves up for a mini squeeze. During … Continued
The so-called January barometer – as goes January, so goes the year – is on the verge of providing an early warning for 2016. January is believed to benefit from a seasonal anomaly favoring stocks. The January effect occurs when … Continued
Stocks are rallying. In fact, off the intra-day low last week, the S&P 500 index (1906.9) is already up 5.2 percent. Last Wednesday’s hammer reversal on the index looks similar to the ones on October 15, 2014 and August 24, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 19, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The International Monetary Fund lowers – again – its outlook for global economic growth this year. Warning of bumpier rides, especially in the … Continued
While there are some signs of near-term capitulation in equities – further raising odds of continuation of rally post-Wednesday reversal – it is perhaps also time to ruminate over why markets started the year all jittery and restless. From intra-day … Continued
The S&P just published operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies for 2017, and it is an eye-catcher. Depending on one’s bias, reaction can range from ‘yee-haw’ to ‘not again’. The consensus expects a whopping $141.11. To put things into … Continued
U.S. stocks have gone 12 straight sessions without even a sliver of a bounce. About time for a reprieve? Between the December 29th intra-day high and January 15th low, the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials each lost 10.8 percent, the … Continued
Last Friday, the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio registered a reading of north of one. This does not occur very often. With this, the 21-day moving average rose to 0.766, not that far away from the September 18th (2015) high of … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: With crude oil tanking the way it has, it is worth taking note that oil does correlate with inflation expectations. Already, the 10-year … Continued