As discussed last week that non-commercial futures traders might just once again be ahead of the curve in anticipating market reaction to Thursday’s ECB decision, they indeed were. By Tuesday (last week), they had raised net shorts in euro futures … Continued
Since we got that VIX-spike signal four weeks ago and subsequent signs that equities are regaining momentum, this is the first time we are getting signals that they are worn out – at least near-term. Since the bottom at 1904.78 … Continued
The answer to the question above is a probable yes. Twice since early March this year, small-caps have come under decent amount of pressure. The first was a nine-week, 11-percent decline that began early March, followed by a nine-percent drop beginning … Continued
The revised 2Q14 GDP numbers last week have rekindled hopes of a corporate capital spending revival in the U.S. It was the second estimate (preliminary), so there is one more revision to go. Nevertheless, several inputs related to corporate spending … Continued
The expected decline in the euro never came. Back on August 11, it looked like the currency was ready for a bounce. Just a bounce, as long-term technicals were only midway through unwinding overbought conditions hence did not call for … Continued
NYSE Composite short interest in the middle of August was essentially unchanged month-over-month at 14.8bn, while the Nasdaq Composite saw a 2.4-percent decrease at 8.6bn. The adjacent chart and the one below show how short interest has been building up … Continued
The Congressional Budget Office yesterday put out some interesting forecasts for the current fiscal year. Corporate tax revenues will come in at $315bn, versus prior forecast of $351bn, it said, and that U.S. real GDP growth will be 1.5 percent, … Continued
NYSE margin debt was essentially flat in July – $460.2bn, down from $464.3bn in June and not too far away from February’s all-time high of $465.7bn. It is possible August manages a month-over-month increase; numbers will be released in a … Continued
The piece yesterday on U.S. housing was based on June’s numbers. New-home sales data came out yesterday, and it was anything but encouraging. Year-over-year, sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) rose 12.2 percent but fell 2.4 percent month-over-month. The latter helps … Continued
There was a lot of excitement last week when housing starts/building permits data were released for July. Starts surged 15.7 percent month-over-month and 21.7 percent year-over-year to 1.1mn units (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Multi-family (five units or more) easily outran … Continued