U.S. bond market and Fed lock horns as relates to trajectory of short rates Fed continues to drop hints it is ready to lift rates off near-zero levels Should that come to pass, it has potential to help vigilantes’ case … Continued
Oil-and-extraction jobs are just beginning to come under pressure More on the way as mining-and-logging job openings crater In Jan and Feb, energy job-cut announcements >36k Since crude oil peaked in the middle of last year, investor attention has been … Continued
AAPL set to join Dow brings out ‘this is top’ talk Historically, tough to argue Dow inclusion ensures top If AAPL peaks, it will be for other business-related reasons AAPL (127.14) is slated to replace T in the Dow Jones … Continued
Divergence between jobs momentum and other macro data points Annual growth in productivity past four years mere 0.68 percent Infrastructure, both structures and equipment, is rapidly aging It has been more or less an enigma. The divergence between various U.S. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 3. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: They continued to add to net shorts, and it has so far backfired. Post-jobs report Friday, the 10-year yield shot up 13 basis points. … Continued
Recent WMT announcement notwithstanding, wage stagnation has been a trend 4Q14 U.S. non-farm output per hour goes negative – first drop since 3Q11 Businesses can pay productive workforce higher wages and still win Later this morning, we get February’s U.S. … Continued
Equity bulls seek to justify why Nasdaq of 2015 is not as bubbly as was Nasdaq of 2000 Bubble elsewhere – in VC, in biotech, and most importantly, in easy money Excesses driven by ‘this time is different’ psychology never … Continued
March starts off by notching new highs for most U.S. indices Giddy investor sentiment – from pros to newsletters to individuals If past is guide, it pays to pull in horns when crowd becomes worry-free Uh-oh! The Nasdaq composite on … Continued
Stagnant wages thorn in U.S. recovery’s side WMT, TJX, AET, SBUX, GAP have announced plans to hike wages Be careful what we wish for, given elevated valuation and risk of margin compression? One of the things that have been a … Continued
’15 growth in revenue/earnings expected to decelerate for most S&P 500 sectors Signal from options market points to probable pressure ahead for equities S&P 500 looks set to at least test if recent breakout was genuine At first glance, U.S. … Continued