Last six years, U.S. high-yield bond issuance of $1.6tn This week, several Fed officials signal imminent rate hike this year Junk bonds – popular risk-on vehicle – not likely to take kindly to end of ZIRP A week ago, HYG, … Continued
Small-caps relative outperformer past several weeks Hard to make fundamental case, but technically RUT acts very well Ideal, and probable, scenario: RUT pulls back for successful retest of recent breakout There is something very interesting going on in the small-cap … Continued
Subdued corporate capX now will adversely impact productivity later First time in 6 years, U.S. non-financials corporate capX exceeds internal funds Given new energy dynamics and impact on capX, too early to back-slap and high-five? U.S. corporations have not been … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 17, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: What a week! In four out of the five sessions, the 10-year yield fell – down 18 basis points for the week. On … Continued
Bulls have consistently climbed wall of worry, that is, elevated short interest Past 3 months, Naz/NYSE short interest sideways, shorts giving up? Hedgopia Risk Reward Index pokes head out of reward zone Post-FOMC, Wednesday sure felt like a session in … Continued
Fed gets rid of “patient”, but hints it will be patient in hiking rates Surging dollar impacts exports; Fed takes 2015 GDP forecast down a notch With economic data increasingly coming in weak, rate-hike odds this year next to nil … Continued
Different messages coming out of two financial ETFs – KBE vs. XLF KBE similar to KRE, regional bank ETF, while XLF is large cap-dominated C&I loans have been growing nicely, but so is inventories-to-sales ratio, muddying picture How did U.S. … Continued
Dollar index signaling it is ready to at least pause? Stronger $ will adversely impact both exports and earnings Fed can ill afford to send hawkish signal post-FOMC on Wednesday Over the past three sessions, this is how the U.S. … Continued
Shortly after noon on Saturday, a Zero Hedge tweet caught my attention. It was entitled “‘From Bubble-Blower To Energy Expert, Alan Greenspan warns ‘Oil Hasn’t Bottomed Yet.’” Apparently he was on Bloomberg with Betty Liu, and in the interview talked … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 10. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: 10-year yields shed another 13 basis points in the week. Nonetheless, note owners continued to sell near 2.04 percent. And these traders, in agreement, … Continued