SMH Sits At Crucial Juncture – INTC Results With Nearly 11% Weight Can Decide Fate

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Intel (INTC) reports later today.  This is coming at a crucial time as far as where SMH (VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF) is situated. Texas Instruments’ (TXN) results were received favorably Wednesday, with the stock up 4.8 percent.  It accounts for … Continued

Buyback-induced breakouts — signal or noise?

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

GE stages massive breakout Friday on back of massive buyback announcement S&P 500 companies splurged $565 billion on share repurchases in 2014 As/when buybacks dry up, support zones become more vulnerable Before last week, GE shares had been on a … Continued

Range-bound SMH seems ripe for neutral option strategy

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

SMH, the semiconductor ETF, has been range-bound since last September.  Looking at a weekly chart (the one below is daily), the path of least resistance seems down in the medium-term.  Bears had a great opportunity seven sessions ago to push … Continued

Peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 31, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: At some point, the streak had to end.  For 12 months to February, U.S. non-farm payroll grew 200k-plus month-over-month.  Consensus was for that … Continued

SMH still range-bound short-term, Fib possible roadblock medium- to long-term

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

SMH’s latest rally attempt gets rejected at underside of broken Oct 2014 trendline Past 3 months, some semi outfits have seen estimates revised up, some down ETF has retraced 61.8% of Mar 00-Nov 08 decline; may mean pause/stop In the … Continued

Bids show up on SMH on support, asks likely will show up on resistance

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Semi rout after months of decline in orders for business capX proxy From INTC to TSM to SNDK, semi heavyweights pointing out biz slowdown SMH shorts stand no chance until longs are bothered by worsening earnings scene It is not … Continued

Dow induction alone does not ensure peak in share price

posted in: Equities | 0

AAPL set to join Dow brings out ‘this is top’ talk Historically, tough to argue Dow inclusion ensures top If AAPL peaks, it will be for other business-related reasons AAPL (127.14) is slated to replace T in the Dow Jones … Continued

Capex hopefuls cannot catch a break

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy | 0

Setback in orders for business-capex proxy; down four consecutive months Inventory-to-order ratios, nowhere near previous peaks, trending higher Zero-bound suppressed rates probably impacting incentive to borrow The much-anticipated capex boom in the U.S. will just have to wait a while … Continued

Amidst continued selling of rally attempts, bounce probably due

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Bounces are normal within established downtrends 2015 starts out lousy; selling/shorting rallies ka-ching so far this year Should Draghi disappoint next week and U.S. stocks get sold, weakness probably gets bought For ardent believers of “as goes January, so goes … Continued