The longest bull market in U.S. stock market history abruptly came to an end last month. Between March 9, 2009 and February 19, 2020 – that is, 131 months – the S&P 500 large cap index rallied 401 percent, second … Continued
No one rang the bell when the longest bull in US stock market history came to an end last month. The drop was swift and decisive. Several oversold metrics are itching to get unwound. But markets are in panic mode. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 10, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 214.6k, up 57.9k. Next week, the FOMC meets. This follows a 50-basis-point emergency cut of last week, to a range of 100 to 125 … Continued
Bears are making a killing. Stocks have come under renewed selling pressure. The S&P 500 is very close to losing 20 percent on a closing basis. Amidst this, fresh from a 50-basis-point emergency cut of last week, the FOMC meets … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 3, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 156.7k, down 117.3k. It seems nothing matters. On a day the bond market found out the US economy produced much-better-than-expected 273,000 non-farm jobs in … Continued
Last Friday, amidst heavy selling, bulls put foot down near October 2019 lows. By then, several indicators got pushed into grossly oversold territory. Not Investors Intelligence bulls, whose count this week was 41.7 percent. Since last Friday’s intraday reversal, stocks … Continued
Intra-meeting Tuesday, the Fed delivered a 50-basis-point reduction in the fed funds rate. Stocks yawned, gold rallied and the 10-year T-yield fell to a new low. What gives? Emergency cuts are rare. As are 50-basis-point cuts. Intra-meeting Tuesday, the Fed … Continued
Last week, all major US equity indices lost north of 10 percent and were down a lot more at session lows Friday. If there is any consolation in this, amidst the carnage, bulls stepped up to defend important support. Some … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 274k, down 32.2k. There it goes! The 10-year Treasury yield (1.13 percent) pierced through the lows from July 2012 and July 2016 – 1.39 … Continued
With one session to go this week, VIX shot up in the cash market. In futures, non-commercials are still heavily net short the volatility index. In the past, the cash has tended to peak only when these traders are either … Continued