Already elevated, US corporate bond issuance has gotten a new lease on life, thanks to the Fed, which acted because credit markets were seizing up. Longer term, this ensures leverage continues higher. When it is all said and done, there … Continued
After massive rallies since the lows of March, major US stock indices saw sellers show up later last week at/near important resistance. Some indicators made a quick switch from fear to greed. This is coming at a time when the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 49.4k, up 15.3k. In the week ended February 11th, non-commercials held 398,919 net shorts in 10-year note futures. On the 12th that month, the … Continued
On Monday, the Russell 2000 busted through 1250s. This has been an important price point going back five years. Despite lofty earnings expectations for both this year and next, this week’s action is a thumbs-up from markets. As long as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 34.1k, down 36.7k. The FOMC meets next week. A two-day meeting begins Tuesday. This comes after March’s hectic schedule which included two unscheduled meetings. … Continued
Stocks have rallied massively since March lows, but bulls are essentially hiding in large-caps, and in just a few names within large-caps. If past is prelude, such over-reliance is not lasting. With 47 companies reporting as of last Thursday, 1Q20 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 70.8k, up 9.8k. The Fed is on a mission to provide a backstop to a whole host of assets. Here is its report card … Continued
Unless a coronavirus vaccine is miraculously developed at record time, a V-shaped recovery in the economy is not probable. Yet, stocks seem to be anticipating one. The Fed is flooding the system with liquidity. Stocks have rallied massively off of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 7, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 61k, up 8k. The Fed continues to spread its policy tentacles. During the financial crisis of 2007-2008, it began to aggressively purchase Treasury securities … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 31, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 53k, down 159k. In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went up another $432.2 billion to $4.77 trillion – a … Continued