Last Friday, amidst heavy selling, bulls put foot down near October 2019 lows. By then, several indicators got pushed into grossly oversold territory. Not Investors Intelligence bulls, whose count this week was 41.7 percent. Since last Friday’s intraday reversal, stocks … Continued
Intra-meeting Tuesday, the Fed delivered a 50-basis-point reduction in the fed funds rate. Stocks yawned, gold rallied and the 10-year T-yield fell to a new low. What gives? Emergency cuts are rare. As are 50-basis-point cuts. Intra-meeting Tuesday, the Fed … Continued
Last week, all major US equity indices lost north of 10 percent and were down a lot more at session lows Friday. If there is any consolation in this, amidst the carnage, bulls stepped up to defend important support. Some … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 274k, down 32.2k. There it goes! The 10-year Treasury yield (1.13 percent) pierced through the lows from July 2012 and July 2016 – 1.39 … Continued
With one session to go this week, VIX shot up in the cash market. In futures, non-commercials are still heavily net short the volatility index. In the past, the cash has tended to peak only when these traders are either … Continued
Margin debt has diverged from US stocks – or not. It depends if margin debt is pitted against large- or small-caps. The former shows divergence, the latter not. Historically, FINRA margin debt tends to move hand in hand with US … Continued
US reliance on debt is growing. Having already just about used up the conventional monetary tool and a massive balance sheet, the Fed is looking for new tools – a la Japan. Stocks’ reaction function to Japanification is key. At … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 18, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 306.3k, down 92.7k. Once again, bond bears (on price) were having to defend 1.51 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield (1.47 percent). Most recently, … Continued
Foreigners, who had been cutting exposure for a while, have been warming up to U.S. stocks of late. Bulls obviously would like this to continue. Historically, foreigners’ activity and the S&P 500 have shown a tendency to move in tandem. … Continued
Major U.S. equity indices have rallied massively – particularly since the lows of December 2018. Throughout this, money-market funds kept rising. In recent weeks, they have dropped a tad. If this is the beginning of a trend, bulls will be … Continued