If G-20 Disappoints, Weakness Likely Gets Bought In Seasonally Favorable Period

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In a session the S&P 500 rallied 2.3 percent, VIX held up better on Wednesday.  It is probably due to the uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks over the weekend in Argentina.  Should, come Monday, stocks initially get roiled it is … Continued

Small-Caps Last Week Continued To Bleed But Performed Relatively Better – Signal Or Noise?

US stocks continued to take it on the chin last week.  Amidst this rout that began early October, small-caps last week performed relatively better.  Bulls hope this is a signal, not a noise, at least near term. US M2 money … Continued

Options, Investor Sentiment Do Not Show Panic For Major Bottom In Stocks

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The S&P 500 sits at/near October lows.  How the bull-bear duel resolves in the next few sessions will decide the path of least resistance in this seasonally favorable period.  Options and investor sentiment do not reflect panic.  If stocks rally … Continued

Stocks Attempting To Form Base – This Week’s Action Could Provide Further Clues

There are signs of macro deceleration.  Equities may be starting to price this in, but are not panicking.  If the S&P 500 rallies near term, how investors behave around 2800 can signal what kind of deceleration lies ahead. On October … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 333.2k, down 206k. On October 5, the 10-year rate (3.07 percent) began retreating after touching 3.25 percent – the highest since May 2011.  Thursday … Continued

Indices Under Pressure – Again – Bulls Need To Defend Recent Lows

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Major US equity indices are once again under pressure, likely eyeing recent lows.  In the event they are not breached, options can offer an opportunity for nimble traders. Bears were looking at decent odds to get aggressive last week.  The … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 539.2k, up 36.3k. In January, the 10-year Treasury rate broke out of 2.62 percent.  Then in September, it took out 2.95 percent, followed by … Continued