In the wake of the tax cuts of December 2017, S&P 500 companies are paying less than 20 percent in income taxes. All good except the gap between GAAP and non-GAAP income remains. In 3Q19, S&P 500 companies paid 18.9 … Continued
Mid-January, Nasdaq short interest rose to a four-plus-year high. In 14 months, the index rallied north of 52 percent. Shorts find this, among others, a compelling reason to build positions. Ironically, they may also end up helping longs defend support … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 302.5k, up 79k. The FOMC meets next week – on 28-29. This is the year’s first meeting. Markets do not expect the Fed to … Continued
Over the past year, housing data – both survey- and activity-based – have gotten better. Housing starts and sales of new and existing homes have strengthened since the December 2018/January 2019 lows. ITB just broke out of two-year resistance. Possible … Continued
Investors Intelligence bulls this week posted the highest since early October 2018 when US stocks were peaking. This time around, stocks rallied big the last 15 weeks. Bullish sentiment is way elevated. The Russell 2000, which currently sits at crucial … Continued
The post-Great Recession recovery has been uneven. Jobs have been one of the bright spots. In the dying months of last year, job openings – both non-farm and small-business – weakened. It is too early to declare a trend has … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 223.6k, up 44.3k. Bond bulls and bears continue to fight over control of trend-line support from early September when the 10-year Treasury yield (1.84 … Continued
Once again, small-caps are at a crucial juncture. The Russell 2000 slightly retreated three weeks ago after rallying hard post-1600+ breakout. Wednesday, bulls rallied past that high, but barely. A convincing takeout of this level brings the index one step … Continued
US stocks continue to make fresh highs, with the leaders doing all the heavy lifting. Tech is the leading sector, and it leads by a mile. At some point, this lop-sided leadership becomes more of a risk than a reward. … Continued
Elevated multiples have not bothered equity bulls. In recent months, the Fed too has come to their aid. Investor optimism is dangerously elevated going into the 4Q19 earnings season. The 4Q19 earnings season kicks off this week. Banks and brokers … Continued