Stocks have rallied massively since March lows, but bulls are essentially hiding in large-caps, and in just a few names within large-caps. If past is prelude, such over-reliance is not lasting. With 47 companies reporting as of last Thursday, 1Q20 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 70.8k, up 9.8k. The Fed is on a mission to provide a backstop to a whole host of assets. Here is its report card … Continued
Foreigners purchased more U.S. stocks in February. On the 19th that month, the S&P 500 peaked, before unraveling in March. How foreigners behaved in March therefore will be a tell. Should they turn defensive, this will have come at a … Continued
In less than a month, major U.S. stock indices have witnessed phenomenal rallies. This would be a lot healthier if risk-on metrics rallied right along. U.S. stocks have rallied massively off of last month’s lows. From the March 23rd bottom … Continued
Unless a coronavirus vaccine is miraculously developed at record time, a V-shaped recovery in the economy is not probable. Yet, stocks seem to be anticipating one. The Fed is flooding the system with liquidity. Stocks have rallied massively off of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 7, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 61k, up 8k. The Fed continues to spread its policy tentacles. During the financial crisis of 2007-2008, it began to aggressively purchase Treasury securities … Continued
If not for the intraday reversal, the S&P 500 Tuesday came very close to ending the ongoing bear market. Regardless how things shake out near term, at least until February, margin debt stood elevated – relatively speaking. In the prior … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 31, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 53k, down 159k. In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went up another $432.2 billion to $4.77 trillion – a … Continued
The sell-side is beginning to revise earnings estimates lower. But looking at the disruptions caused by the coronavirus, more downward revisions probably lie ahead. Company boards will be looking to conserve cash, with dividends and buybacks likely targets – the … Continued
There is already a debate going on as to if a new bull market has begun. What is more important at this stage is if last week’s low holds, as stocks likely come under pressure near term. Regardless if a … Continued