Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 7, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 179.2k, down 55.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.83 percent) was rejected at 1.95-1.97 percent in both November and December. The drop since found support … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 31, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to New Year’s holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 234.8k, down 33.9k. Last week, the 10-year T-yield (1.81 percent) essentially … Continued
It is early to declare that a trend is beginning, but last week was the first time in a while that major US equity indices were indecisive, showing early signs of fatigue. This is coming at a time when ratios … Continued
Last year was a bumper year for stocks. Conditions are extended, sentiment effusive. History has taught us over and over again unwinding can be painful. As soon as 2020 began, US stocks picked up where they left off 2019. In … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 24, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 268.7k, up 23.3k. Last Tuesday’s intraday high of 1.95 percent was yet … Continued
S&P 500 companies are doling out record dividends. Because the index has rallied massively, the dividend yield continues to linger around two percent. This is still better than what the long end of the sovereign bond market is yielding, helping … Continued
The Nasdaq rallied to yet another record high Tuesday. It is up over 16 percent since early October. Shorts are leaving, but not in droves. Since the end of September, Nasdaq short interest is down 1.8 percent, and remains elevated. … Continued
Major US equity indices continue to attract bids and are trading at fresh highs. Greed rules, with several metrics at nosebleed levels. In a seasonally favorable period, crazy can get crazier – at least that is what bulls hope. How … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 245.3k, up 66.4k. Bond bears (on price) keep hammering on a potentially crucial level. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.92 percent) dropped to 1.43 percent … Continued
Buybacks by S&P 500 companies continue at an aggressive pace. This makes up for shortfalls coming from margin debt and money market assets. Help of late is also coming from the Fed. Buybacks snapped back up in 3Q19. After a … Continued