Small-caps have awoken from their slumber. The Russell 2000 is up 6.6 percent in the last three sessions, with a breakout at 2100. Long a laggard versus large-caps, particularly tech, small-caps’ latest outperformance is raising questions as to if this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 417.9k, up 72.5k. Futures traders this week jacked up their rate-cutting bets for this year. They now expect, with 90 percent probability, the first … Continued
After June’s CPI Thursday, markets are heavily betting a September rate cut is all but certain. For equity bulls, who have rallied the indices massively on the back of ‘a rate cut is coming,’ this could very well mark a … Continued
Large-cap bulls are on the rampage. Sell-side analysts are egging them on, as they continue to lower June-quarter earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. Some sentiment readings look dangerously elevated. Equity bulls are not taking a break. They have been … Continued
The June-quarter earnings season is upon us, and US equity indices increasingly are giving out signs of fatigue. Halfway through, they have already rallied mid- to high-teen percent this year. Digestion of these gains is the path of least resistance … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 319.8k, down 47.8k. FOMC minutes for the June 11-12 meeting will be out next Wednesday. It is pretty much a given nothing earth-shattering will … Continued
The Russell 2000’s continued difficulty at 2100 runs in contrast to one after another high notched by large-cap indices such as the S&P 500. That said, last week’s weekly gravestone doji on the Nasdaq 100 is worth watching. After unsuccessfully … Continued
The S&P 500 is on course for a third straight up quarter, with a touch of ‘parabolic’ to it. Buybacks and margin debt have provided a tailwind, although the latter in particular points to a lack of aggressive willingness to … Continued
As the rally from the lows of October persists, there are fewer and fewer bears around. In the last several months, they have had several opportunities to gain the upper hand, but to no avail. Another opportunity is at hand. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 307.7k, down 147.1k. The 10-year treasury yield peaked last October at five percent (4.997 percent, to be precise), subsequently bottoming at 3.79 percent in … Continued