Bond vigilantes vs. Fed: Who is calling whose bluff and where it might lead

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy, Technicals | 0

U.S. bond market and Fed lock horns as relates to trajectory of short rates Fed continues to drop hints it is ready to lift rates off near-zero levels Should that come to pass, it has potential to help vigilantes’ case … Continued

Collapse in crude yet to adversely impact petrodollars’ demand for Treasurys

posted in: Commodities, Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

As world’s largest debtor and one running deficit, U.S. needs constant demand for Treasurys Recycling of petrodollars has been reliable source of demand for U.S. federal debt So far, drop in price of crude has not adversely impacted this demand … Continued

Even as 10-year attracts bids, non-commercials’ net shorts at four-year high

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy | 0

10-year notes yielding lower vs when Nov’s blockbuster jobs report came out Large speculators’ net shorts in 10-year-note futures at four-plus-year high Bond vigilantes not buying hopes and prayers of escape-velocity backers Treasury bonds continue to catch a bid.  A … Continued

XLF breaks out, likely headed toward $24, if technicals prevail

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

A month ago, we pointed out a divergence between 10- and two-year Treasury yield spread, which peaked as 2013 was unwinding, and financial stocks, which had ceased to track the spread and were rallying.  Going back nearly 18 years, the … Continued