Near-term, equity bulls may just have wasted an opportunity to put their foot down. Mid- to long-term, both margin debt and share buybacks are no longer a potent tailwind as they once were. FINRA margin debt dropped 2.9 percent month-over-month … Continued
From its July 27 high through last Friday’s low, the S&P 500 quickly shed 5.9 percent. A relief rally looks imminent as equity bulls are not in a mood to let go breakout retest at 4320s. Not now anyway. Mid-to … Continued
Margin debt is tightly correlated with the major US equity indices, with the former up nicely from its low of last December, although the willingness to take on margin debt is nowhere near as strong as was the case in … Continued
Several leading stocks such as MSFT and AAPL posted new highs last week and then reversed lower. This took place just ahead of 2Q earnings results and indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 have had massive … Continued
The dichotomy between large- and small-caps continues – the former at 14-month high and the latter stuck in an 18-month range. That said, the S&P 500 has reached a potentially crucial resistance. Buybacks have been providing a nice tailwind. Margin … Continued
The S&P 500 is up nearly 21 percent from last October’s low. Yet, US-based equity funds continue to bleed, and margin debt is lower from October through April. If equity bulls cannot mend the situation soon, non-commercials, with most net … Continued
Two important data points came out last week and both are acting as headwinds. Margin debt and foreigners’ buying behavior are likely to continue to maintain the current trajectory medium- to long-term. Near-term, technical indicators are oversold, with the S&P … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 12, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 299.9k, down 62.9k. That the 10-year treasury yield has gone parabolic in recent weeks is no exaggeration. As recently as March 1, rates tagged … Continued
The rise in supply of new homes is coming amidst relatively soft sales, inflated prices and now rising mortgage rates. Concurrently, builder sentiment is off its high but remains elevated, even as ITB is below potentially crucial $66. Sales of … Continued
Record buybacks are acting as a big tailwind, offsetting headwinds coming from foreigners and margin debt. Investor sentiment is suppressed enough it can act as a tailwind. S&P 500 buybacks set a new record in 4Q21. The companies spent $270.1 … Continued