In 1Q16, the S&P 500 large cap index edged up 0.8 percent. Not much. But considering that the year got off on the wrong foot, quickly losing north of 11 percent by January 20th, this was quite a comeback (Chart … Continued
U.S. equity indices are near all-time highs. One would logically think retail investors would be all in, that foreigners are actively taking part in the rally, and that traders are making use of margin debt as never before. None of … Continued
U.S. stocks look vulnerable here. The only question is that of duration and magnitude. Here is why. Off the February 11th intra-day low through the April 1st high, the S&P 500 large cap index rallied nearly 15 percent (Chart 1). … Continued
U.S. stocks began 2016 on the wrong foot. That is an understatement. In fact, major indices peaked intra-day on December 29th (2015). Using that high, the S&P 500 large cap index through the intra-day low on January 20th lost 13 … Continued
Stocks are rallying. In fact, off the intra-day low last week, the S&P 500 index (1906.9) is already up 5.2 percent. Last Wednesday’s hammer reversal on the index looks similar to the ones on October 15, 2014 and August 24, … Continued
Crude oil peaked in June 2014. As months went by and the price decline picked up momentum, there were growing worries as to if this would force major oil exporters to begin to unwind their Treasury holdings. Obviously this would … Continued
Sideways movement in margin debt a sign investors’ risk appetite waning? 35-year correlation between stocks and margin debt of 0.95, 2014 was only 0.28 In 2000 and 2007, peak in margin debt preceded peak in C&I loans by one-plus year … Continued
NYSE margin debt only increased $3.3bn in November. The S&P 500 rose 2.5 percent in the month. Except for brief ups and downs toward the middle of 2014, margin debt has essentially gone sideways for the first 11 months last … Continued