Of late, volatility has been volatile. In the past month, VIX, the S&P 500 Volatility Index, has done a complete round trip – surging 68 percent in 11 sessions and then giving it all back in the next eight. As … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 14, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Fed Chair Janet Yellen during her mid-week Humphrey-Hawkins testimony reiterated her desire to hike interest rates later this year, if data cooperate. On … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 7, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: After the June FOMC minutes were released, investors pushed back expectations for the first interest rate hike to March next year. The minutes … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 30, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Non-commercials continue to reduce net shorts – currently lowest since September 23rd last year. They have reduced net shorts by 98 percent in … Continued
If there has been one common thread shared by major U.S. indices before the rout this Monday, it is this: the sell-off preceded a trendline break. Back in the middle of October last year, as the S&P 500 Index was … Continued
Mon’s 35-percent rally in VIX rare – largest since 43-percent surge mid-Apr 2013 After weeks of suppression, VIX:VXV spikes into overbought zone – worth watching Not much change in Jul call open interest on Mon vs Fri; ATM put IV … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 23, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Yields pushed up nearly 21 basis points for the week. Sales of both new and existing homes did well in May (even though … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 16, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Let us see if we can make some sense out of this week’s major developments. The FOMC met, and it looked like members … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 2, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Yields have decisively broken out of a five-month downtrend channel. The only question is what triggered this. To quote the Beige Book: “The … Continued
The PowerShares QQQ (110.05), the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100, seems to want to go lower, at least near-term. When the Qs broke out of 104-plus in February, it quickly added nearly four percent, rallying seven-plus percent for the … Continued