From its July 27 high through last Friday’s low, the S&P 500 quickly shed 5.9 percent. A relief rally looks imminent as equity bulls are not in a mood to let go breakout retest at 4320s. Not now anyway. Mid-to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 691.7k, up 46.5k. Minutes for the July 25-26 meeting are due out Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 25 basis points in … Continued
One of the things that helped propel stocks higher was rising conviction among equity bears that they were headed lower. As the major US equity indices bottomed last October and began to rally, a vicious short squeeze followed. Now, short … Continued
The S&P 500 is attempting to break out of a rising channel at a time when metric after metric is yelling overbought. Concurrently, the potential for short squeeze is less and less. On the S&P 500, equity bulls notched up … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 23, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 771.6k, up 79.2k. It took them a while, but futures traders have at long last stopped wasting money expecting an improbable outcome. Until last … Continued
Post-SVB collapse, community and regional banks have come under shorts’ attack. Bruised KRE, having sliced through the neckline of a head-and-shoulders formation last month, has more to go on the downside should the pattern complete. The number of commercial banks … Continued
Non-commercial futures traders are heavily on the short side. They can get forced to cover or get squeezed if equity longs had their way. It is not going to be easy for the latter. Having already spent a nice bit … Continued
If the overnight strength in the futures market sticks and Tuesday’s CPI report cooperates, there is room for continued rally in stocks. Some indicators such as the percent of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day are way suppressed, although the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 6, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 369.2k, up 72.4k. The FOMC meets next week. The day the two-day meeting begins, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report November’s consumer price … Continued
It is a seasonally strong period for stocks. Bulls are wasting no time getting ready for this. Stocks are rallying. In the best of circumstances, there is room to run still, with the caveat that an important inflation report is … Continued