It is probable the 10-year T-yield has peaked at five percent. In this scenario, a sustained move lower will put shorts, who were heavily betting on higher rates, under pressure to cover. Two weeks ago, the 10-year treasury yield met … Continued
Equity bulls rallied the major US stock indices strongly early last week, but the momentum faded as the week progressed. One of the reasons for this is the lack of potential tailwind coming from heightened bearish sentiment. Equity bulls are … Continued
Financials will start reporting 3Q results pre-open tomorrow. From May’s low, KBE has rallied into potentially crucial resistance. A breakout can trigger short squeeze. KBE short interest just shot up. The September-quarter earnings season is upon us. Customarily, financials will … Continued
The 10-year yield retreated last month from a potentially crucial spot. The supply-demand dynamics are in favor of bond bears, but this is also a well-known fact, hence may already be in the price. They at the same time are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 22, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 694.9k, down 52k. It was a yawner to say the least – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech at the annual Jackson Hole … Continued
From its July 27 high through last Friday’s low, the S&P 500 quickly shed 5.9 percent. A relief rally looks imminent as equity bulls are not in a mood to let go breakout retest at 4320s. Not now anyway. Mid-to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 691.7k, up 46.5k. Minutes for the July 25-26 meeting are due out Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 25 basis points in … Continued
One of the things that helped propel stocks higher was rising conviction among equity bears that they were headed lower. As the major US equity indices bottomed last October and began to rally, a vicious short squeeze followed. Now, short … Continued
The S&P 500 is attempting to break out of a rising channel at a time when metric after metric is yelling overbought. Concurrently, the potential for short squeeze is less and less. On the S&P 500, equity bulls notched up … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 23, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 771.6k, up 79.2k. It took them a while, but futures traders have at long last stopped wasting money expecting an improbable outcome. Until last … Continued