Stocks increasingly are beginning to price in a possible democratic sweep on November 3. Both small- and large-caps staged important technical breakouts last week. They are liking the prospect of more stimulus, that is rising budget deficit. If this scenario … Continued
The week started out strong, with Monday producing handsome gains on all major US equity indices. Before bulls could carry the momentum further, bears showed up in droves Tuesday at/near horizontal resistance – some minor, some major. The Nasdaq 100 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 29, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 128.6k, up 46.4k. FOMC minutes for the September 15-16 meeting are due out Wednesday. Rates at that meeting were obviously left unchanged between zero … Continued
Even as tech shorts have meaningfully increased their activity, Nasdaq 100 longs have tried to put foot down just under the 50-day. A takeout of the average can shift sentiment – duration notwithstanding. Tech bulls are trying hard to put … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 22, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 82.2k, up 67.4k. Several Fed officials this week stressed on the need for Congress to get its act together and provide fiscal help. This … Continued
Bulls tried to put foot down on Monday. If they succeed in building on this further, the next tug of war on major indices lies around their respective 50-day, reclaiming of which can even induce short squeeze, particularly in tech. … Continued
Short squeeze of non-commercials in the futures market was a big factor behind the rally in the S&P 500 since mid-June. These traders have now targeted the Nasdaq 100. This has raised tech bulls’ hopes for a squeeze. But conditions … Continued
The recent selloff in equities has come at a time of elevated Fed balance sheet, stabilizing earnings estimates and improving macro data. Either stocks believe these positives are not lasting or they are falling under their own weight, as they … Continued
It is easy to see why bears get tempted to short. Fundamentally, things are ugly. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has essentially backstopped stock prices. Shorts have gotten squeezed over and over. Bruised tech shorts are still not … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 11, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 5.5k, down 86.6k. The 10-year treasury yield (0.71 percent) had a strong week, up 15 basis points, but not enough for a range breakout. … Continued