Large- and small-caps are diverging, with the former looking to break out to a fresh high and the latter stuck in a range well off its high. Large-cap bulls are eying a breakout on the S&P 500. Last week, the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 751k, up 43.3k. FOMC minutes for the January 28-29 meeting will be out Wednesday. The policy-setting body left the fed funds rate unchanged at … Continued
Equity bulls are struggling at resistance. Last Friday’s news of consumers’ heightened inflation expectations for the next year was used as an opportunity to lighten up at/near resistance. This is taking place at a time when bullish optimism remains high … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 4, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 707.7k, up 7.1k. Friday, the University of Michigan consumer survey was published for February, and it was revealed that the respondents meaningfully raised their … Continued
Equity bulls bought weakness owing to DeepSeek and tariff jitters. Near term, the major indices act like they want higher prints. Mid- to long-term, the outlook gets muddied thanks to uncertainty owing to the new administration’s trade policy in particular. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 28, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 700.6k, up 120.4k. As expected, the FOMC this week left the fed funds rate unchanged at a range of 425 basis points to 450 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 21, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 580.2k, up 12.3k. The FOMC meets next week. The 28-29 meeting is the first this year. It is certain the fed funds rate will … Continued
Earnings Season is upon us. Fourth-quarter estimates for S&P 500 companies customarily have been gradually revised lower over the past several months. Heading into this, equities rallied huge last week, although the major US indices are off their December highs. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2025. 10-year note: Currently net short 567.9k, down 104.5k. The 10-year treasury yield reached five percent (4.997 percent, to be precise) in October 2023 before coming under pressure. Last September, … Continued
Last Friday was painful for equity bulls, as strength in the labor market forced markets to rerate rate-cut hopes. But the major US equity indices were already under pressure as bears defended crucial technical resistance. December was unique in that … Continued