Major US equity indices rallied big last week, closing out right at, or near, important resistance, including moving averages, Fibonacci resistance and breakdown backtest. Concurrently, VIX is sitting on a rising trend line from early January. The S&P 500 (4463) … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 15, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 321k, down 56.7k. The Federal Reserve kicked off its rate hiking cycle this week by pushing up the fed funds rate by 25 basis … Continued
Record buybacks are acting as a big tailwind, offsetting headwinds coming from foreigners and margin debt. Investor sentiment is suppressed enough it can act as a tailwind. S&P 500 buybacks set a new record in 4Q21. The companies spent $270.1 … Continued
Last week, both VIX and the S&P 500 declined. Ordinarily, the two are negatively correlated. This took place even as the volatility index is finding it difficult to enduringly stay above 32-33. Last week, VIX and the S&P 500 moved … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.7k, up 11.9k. Next Tuesday, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the year’s second; six more remain after this. Ahead of this, fed … Continued
Investor sentiment has taken a hit, but major US equity indices are hanging in there – on a relative basis. This is a medium- to long-term worry for bulls. Near-term, they could be looking for opportunities. Possible catalysts include Thursday’s … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 1, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 365.8k, up 80.7k. Talk about a whiplash! The 10-year treasury yield went from 2.07 percent to 1.68 percent in nine sessions. That is a … Continued
For the second time in five weeks, the S&P 500 charted out a bullish weekly hammer. Sentiment readings are suppressed, although non-commercials are at risk of being too bullish. Near-term, the path of least resistance is up – magnitude and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 22, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 285.1k, up 111k. After back-to-back weekly spinning tops in 10-year treasury rates in the last two weeks, bond bears (on price) defended 1.86 percent … Continued
The S&P 500 is sitting on crucial support, a decisive break of which could send bears into panic, and that could set up a decent opportunity for a counter-trend rally. The S&P 500 is hanging by a thread. Down 2.8 … Continued