Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.9k, down 23.4k. The FOMC meets next week. A 75-basis-point hike is baked in, with futures traders assigning an 82-percent probability for that move. … Continued
Small-cap profit trend took a decisive step lower last month. This is taking place even as operating earnings estimates for both this year and next have peaked; yet, next year’s may not have fully priced in this year’s interest-rate hikes, … Continued
After three straight down weeks, both large- and small-caps rallied strong last week. More could follow should non-commercial futures traders, who remain heavily net short S&P 500 e-mini and Russell 2000 mini-index contracts, are forced to cover. Last week began … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 6, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.3k, down 63.8k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had yet another opportunity this week to convince the markets that he and his team are … Continued
VIX took a dive on Wednesday after getting denied at 27.50s for several sessions. Concurrently, Investors Intelligence bulls plunged 15.4 percentage points over two weeks to sub-30 percent, and the Hedgopia Risk Reward Index is rising from oversold territory. Equity … Continued
Next year’s earnings estimates for US companies peaked in April for large-caps and in June for small-caps. Given Powell’s resolve to significantly reduce the current four-decade-high inflation – no matter what the cost to jobs and the economy – the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 30, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 440.1k, up 58.9k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last Friday seemed to have done the trick. At the symposium, he strongly … Continued
The Fed is selling its treasury holdings, foreigners are buying. Non-commercials are shorting 10-year note futures, the US budget deficit is narrowing. Amidst these supply-demand dynamics, the 10-year T-yield is at risk of forming a potentially bearish technical pattern. The … Continued
Until last Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Jerome Powell, it was looking like US equities would continue to rally, but post-speech, the potentially rosy outlook got turned on its head. From the June 17 intraday bottom of 3637 to the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 23, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.2k, up 18k. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, strongly pushed back against any notion of a pivot. Post-July … Continued