Within a year, US interest rates have gone up a lot, with the fed funds rate having risen from zero-bound to north of 4.5 percent currently. In the futures market, traders expect the benchmark rates to peak between 550 basis … Continued
Last Thursday, bulls used initial weakness in major equity indices owed to 4Q22 productivity report as an opportunity to buy. Friday, they bought more. More gains are likely ahead. Fed funds futures are very volatile. Traders are actively reacting real … Continued
US consumer spending is holding up, even as manufacturing is under tremendous pressure. Consumers have been dipping into savings owed to loads of government stimulus post-Covid. Bank deposits remain healthy but at the same time the rate of change year-over-year … Continued
Last Friday’s PCE report forced markets to reprice risk assets. Stocks dropped but at the same time closed significantly higher off sessions lows. Near-term, equities can rally – if nothing else just to unwind the daily oversold conditions. As the … Continued
The fed funds rate has gone up more than 450 basis points since last March, and more tightening is on the way. This is yet to sufficiently make a serious dent in consumer inflation, even as economic data particularly surrounding … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 17, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 545.1k, up 133.7k. The 10-year treasury yield sits at a crucial juncture. It ended this week at 3.48 percent. Around 3.4 percent lies important … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 10, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 411.4k, up 27.8k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has his hands full. He wants to slow down the US economy to bring inflation under … Continued
After four weekly drops in a row, major US stock indices gained last week. Encouragingly for equity bulls, some important patterns have formed technically. More gains are probable. Before last week’s 1.4-percent jump, the S&P 500 suffered four consecutive down … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 6, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.6k, up 39.4k. FOMC minutes for the December 13-14 meeting, out Wednesday, essentially repeated what the post-meeting statement and/or Chair Jerome Powell said in … Continued
Leading up to the 4Q22 earnings reporting season, the sell-side continues to wax enthusiastic about this year’s earnings prospects. The enthusiasm looks improbable considering the meaningful rise in interest rates last year is all set to filter through to the … Continued