Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 10, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, down 44.7k. Annual core CPI rose stronger-than-expected 2.12 percent in March. This was the first year-over-year reading with a two handle in a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 3, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 375.4k, up 70.2k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.78 percent) rose from 2.03 percent last September to 2.94 percent this February. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate … Continued
After a 19-percent peak-to-trough drop, ITB defends crucial support Wednesday. Is this part of a normal correction or something is amiss in housing? In the last several sessions, tons of stocks as well as equity ETF’s and indices were literally … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 305.2k, down 8.1k. For the first time since mid-December last year, 10-year Treasury yields went under the 50-day moving average this week. On March … Continued
Stocks are selling off, but major indices are at/near crucial support, testing the will of the bulls. High-yield spreads are tightening. In Chart 1, the ICE BofAML US high yield BB effective yield is pitted against Moody’s seasoned AAA corporate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 20, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.3k, up 41.9k. Chairing his maiden meeting as Fed chief, Jerome Powell probably could not have asked for more insofar as markets’ reaction was … Continued
Wednesday, the FOMC met. The fed funds rate went up another 25 basis points to between 1.5 percent and 1.75 percent. One would think this would drive market action. But looking at a diverse set of assets, technicals played a … Continued
Once again, 10-year Treasury yields failed at the top end of a long-term channel, although can push higher near term, creating a trading opportunity in TLT. Close, but no cigar! The 10-year rate came very close to breaking out of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 271.4k, down 90.8k. Once again, 10-year Treasury yields are retreating from important resistance. Caught in a three-decade-old descending channel, the 10-year rate came very … Continued
U.S. corporate debt issuance continued to decelerate in February. High-yield spreads are not pointing to stress in the system. After January’s $133.7 billion, February issuance slowed down to $84.3 billion. As a result, the first two-month total, comprised of $184 … Continued