Both Monday and last Friday, VIX failed to keep most of its gains. Amidst this, there is strong support at 11-12, and a 10- and 20-day crossover seems imminent. Concurrently, the S&P 500 formed back-to-back hanging man, which is bearish … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 388.2k, down 12.8k. The trendline resistance proved too much for bond bears (on price) to overcome. On Wednesday, the 10-year treasury yield touched 4.64 … Continued
Equity bears had a great session last Thursday as a bearish engulfing candle developed on several indices, but bulls promptly denied them continued momentum on Friday. This week is key. From last October’s low through last Thursday’s high, the S&P … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 401k, up 53.2k. FOMC minutes for the April 30-May 1 meeting out Wednesday showed members were worried over slow progress on inflation. For the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.8k, down 133.8k. The 10-year had an important test this week. Thursday’s intraday low of 4.32 percent was a successful test of horizontal support … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 481.6k, up 48.7k. Non-commercials continued to add to net shorts in 10-year note futures. As of Tuesday, holdings closed at 481,620 contracts, up from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 433k, up 79k. In an FOMC week in which Chair Jerome Powell was anything but a hawk, aided by weaker-than-expected economic data including April’s … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 23, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 353.9k, down 8.1k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s third scheduled meeting and five more remain after this. The two-day meeting … Continued
Unable to push through resistance, major US equity indices took a drubbing in recent weeks. Mid- to long-term, more downward pressure is probable. Near-term, it is looking like a toss-up between bulls and bears. The S&P 500 last week suffered … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 362k, down 144.8k. Last October, the 10-year treasury yield peaked at five percent, having rallied from 3.25 percent in April. In the week to … Continued