As talk around inflation has gone up several notches, the 10-year treasury yield sits on triple support. A breach has room to squeeze TLT shorts. Inflation is front and center. It is perky. As recently as February this year, core … Continued
Major equity indices had a good week last week. Stocks are currently in the midst of many crosscurrents, not to mention inflation, aggressive monetary policy and several extended metrics. Even though they have broken out of, or are near, important … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 22, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 2.3k, up 36.6k. Doves have won – for now. In the wake of a slightly hawkish tilt in last week’s FOMC meeting in which … Continued
Last week, the FOMC slightly tilted hawkish. Repercussions were felt across assets. Then early this week, dovish members were out in full force, pacifying investors that monetary morphine is here to stay; major equity indices are back at/near their highs. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 15, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 34.3k, down 139.1k. Last week’s FOMC meeting pulled a surprise on markets. Members brought forward their projections for interest rate hikes into 2023, with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 8, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 173.4k, up 118.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s fourth scheduled meeting; four more remain. Not much is expected to occur … Continued
Job openings are at record highs. If past is prelude, this leads to job creation. This time around, thanks to stimulus money, Americans do not seem desperate for jobs – unless wages rise enough to tempt them back into the … Continued
Amidst continuation of aggressive accumulation of assets by the Federal Reserve and a trial balloon last week by Philadelphia Fed president of eventual tapering, large- and small-caps are going their separate ways – the former liking soft economic data and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 1, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 54.8k, down 49.6k. In all likelihood, a trial balloon was floated this week. On Wednesday, Patrick Harker, the Philadelphia Fed president who becomes a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 25, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 104.4k, up 72.7k. In the week to Wednesday, Federal Reserve assets declined $19.3 billion week-over-week to $7.9 trillion but the prior week’s $7.92 trillion … Continued