The 1Q earnings season begins in earnest this week, with a host of financials getting the ball rolling. For large-caps, this year’s revision trend is flat to slightly up, but next year’s is decidedly up, which is kind of interesting … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 5, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 362.9k, down 113.7k. Minutes for the March 15-16 FOMC meeting, out Wednesday, revealed that the Federal Reserve plans to shrink its balance sheet by … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 29, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 476.6k, up 212.7k. FOMC minutes for the March 15-16 meeting are scheduled for Wednesday. At the meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds … Continued
The US bond market is in the thick of interesting dynamics. The Fed plans to reduce its bloated balance sheet – meaning less demand for treasury notes and bonds – even as foreigners are buying more and the US budget … Continued
After strong rallies the past couple of weeks, major US equity indices have reached crucial levels, particularly the S&P 500, even as the Russell 2000 fails at a breakdown backtest and VIX sits at the 200-day. The S&P 500 (4543) … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 22, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 263.8k, down 57.2k. At last, Jerome Powell seems to have gotten religion. Or so it seems. On Monday, the Federal Reserve chair delivered very … Continued
The rise in supply of new homes is coming amidst relatively soft sales, inflated prices and now rising mortgage rates. Concurrently, builder sentiment is off its high but remains elevated, even as ITB is below potentially crucial $66. Sales of … Continued
Major US equity indices rallied big last week, closing out right at, or near, important resistance, including moving averages, Fibonacci resistance and breakdown backtest. Concurrently, VIX is sitting on a rising trend line from early January. The S&P 500 (4463) … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.7k, up 11.9k. Next Tuesday, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the year’s second; six more remain after this. Ahead of this, fed … Continued
On Thursday morning, February’s CPI will be published. Consumer inflation has gone vertical the past couple of years. Businesses have pricing power, as was evident in Tuesday’s NFIB report. A record 68 percent of small-business owners were able to raise … Continued