Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 274k, down 32.2k. There it goes! The 10-year Treasury yield (1.13 percent) pierced through the lows from July 2012 and July 2016 – 1.39 … Continued
With one session to go this week, VIX shot up in the cash market. In futures, non-commercials are still heavily net short the volatility index. In the past, the cash has tended to peak only when these traders are either … Continued
Margin debt has diverged from US stocks – or not. It depends if margin debt is pitted against large- or small-caps. The former shows divergence, the latter not. Historically, FINRA margin debt tends to move hand in hand with US … Continued
US reliance on debt is growing. Having already just about used up the conventional monetary tool and a massive balance sheet, the Fed is looking for new tools – a la Japan. Stocks’ reaction function to Japanification is key. At … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 18, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 306.3k, down 92.7k. Once again, bond bears (on price) were having to defend 1.51 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield (1.47 percent). Most recently, … Continued
Foreigners, who had been cutting exposure for a while, have been warming up to U.S. stocks of late. Bulls obviously would like this to continue. Historically, foreigners’ activity and the S&P 500 have shown a tendency to move in tandem. … Continued
Major U.S. equity indices have rallied massively – particularly since the lows of December 2018. Throughout this, money-market funds kept rising. In recent weeks, they have dropped a tad. If this is the beginning of a trend, bulls will be … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 398.9k, up 40k. The Fed for all intents and purposes has been preparing the markets for more liquidity to come. Since late September last … Continued
RVX is clinging on to support. A breakdown may help small-cap bulls near term, as the Russell 2000 itself is at/near resistance. That said, a ratio between the index and the S&P 500 just made a multi-year low. RVX, which … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.9k, up 88.5k. One more week of additional liquidity from the Fed! In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went … Continued