Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 183.5k, up 34.7k. Interesting dynamics are in play in the sovereign bond market. In the 12-months to October, US budget deficit crossed $1 trillion. … Continued
The 12-month total of US budget deficit just crossed $1 trillion. Treasury issuance is well over $900 billion. Foreigners at the same time have been reducing exposure to US notes and bonds. If the trend persists, this is bound to … Continued
Yet another week and yet another record in the S&P 500, although the Russell 2000 is not in confirmation. Sentiment is complacent, some metrics frothy. But it can get frothier. This also means buying protection is cheap. The US economy … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 148.8k, down 82.7k. TLT (iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF) peaked at $148.90 on August 28, ending the week at $137.76. Since that peak … Continued
In two-plus months, gold dropped just shy of eight percent. With two more sessions to go this week, bulls have managed to defend $1,440s-50s. Rally odds have gone up near term. Gold bugs are putting their foot down. This week’s … Continued
Since bottoming early last month through last week’s high, The Nasdaq rallied more than 10 percent. Shorts contributed, as short interest dropped 1.1 percent last month. Short interest remains elevated. Bulls are eyeing a squeeze. For that, they need to … Continued
With momentum on their side, equity bulls hope metrics such as money-market funds, margin debt and even foreign buying of US stocks begin to cooperate better. In this scenario, volatility, already suppressed, is vulnerable to another leg lower. Non-commercials are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 231.5k, up 115.4k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.93 percent) bottomed on September 3 at 1.43 percent. Since then, rates have formed higher lows, followed … Continued
Small-caps have spring in their step – so to speak – but major resistance is holding firm. In a month through Tuesday’s six-month high of $160.46, IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) jumped 10.7 percent. But bulls probably are not too delighted with … Continued
The S&P 500 rallied strongly in the past month. Investors Intelligence bulls expanded eight percentage points in the last three weeks. In the options market, investors are taking off protection they bought earlier. Greed has replaced fear. Unwinding is the … Continued