Post-Powell’s supposed dovish switch last week, equity bulls spent lots of energy to rally the S&P 500 within less than two points of the 200-day. If the trade-tariff truce the US and China reached over the weekend in Argentina is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 284.2k, down 83k. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, moved markets on Wednesday. A whole host of asset classes reacted to his Economic Club of New … Continued
In a session the S&P 500 rallied 2.3 percent, VIX held up better on Wednesday. It is probably due to the uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks over the weekend in Argentina. Should, come Monday, stocks initially get roiled it is … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the November 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) After a horrendous October, XLB (53.26) bulls defended horizontal support at 50 toward the end … Continued
US stocks continued to take it on the chin last week. Amidst this rout that began early October, small-caps last week performed relatively better. Bulls hope this is a signal, not a noise, at least near term. US M2 money … Continued
The S&P 500 sits at/near October lows. How the bull-bear duel resolves in the next few sessions will decide the path of least resistance in this seasonally favorable period. Options and investor sentiment do not reflect panic. If stocks rally … Continued
If early this year the 10-year T-yield vouched for the strength of the US economy as it broke out of multi-year/decade resistance, what is it trying to tell us now that it seems to have hit the wall and is … Continued
There are signs of macro deceleration. Equities may be starting to price this in, but are not panicking. If the S&P 500 rallies near term, how investors behave around 2800 can signal what kind of deceleration lies ahead. On October … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 333.2k, down 206k. On October 5, the 10-year rate (3.07 percent) began retreating after touching 3.25 percent – the highest since May 2011. Thursday … Continued
For a change, the VIX-to-VXV ratio has managed to stay overbought longer than what has normally been the case. Signal or noise? We need more time before we have a definitive answer. If it is the signal, equity bulls in … Continued