US trade deficit continues its uptrend. Deficit with China in particular is front and center. Trade talks with that nation are ongoing. November’s report, out Wednesday, did nothing to soothe tensions. In general, the monthly trade data put out by … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 31, 2018. Beginning December 21, the CFTC was not able to publish reports on time due to the partial shutdown of the federal government, which has now reopened. Last Friday, data … Continued
January barometer, if comes to pass, bodes well for this year. The S&P 500 is up nearly 16 percent from the December 26 low. It is deeply overbought. Once unwinding begins, bulls hope bids show up at resistance-turned-support at 2600-2630. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 24, 2018. The below is from the CFTC site. “The last COT report was published on December 21, 2018. Reports going forward from that date will be published in chronological order … Continued
Bulls continue to defend 2600-2630 on the S&P 500. Breach risks are rising. VIX, which since October has stayed rather elevated, is itching to rally. After a three-month, 20-percent drop, the S&P 500 large cap index (2640) bottomed intraday on … Continued
Bulls last week defended support at 2600-2630 on the S&P 500, which has rallied massively since bottoming on December 26. Daily conditions are deeply overbought, pricing in a dovish Fed. A two-day FOMC meeting begins Tuesday. A ‘buy the rumor, … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the January 2-15 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (53.12) five sessions ago recaptured a falling trend line from last September. In the … Continued
US home sales peaked in November 2017, homebuilder sentiment in December 2017, and housing starts in January 2018. From its January 2018 intraday high through December low, ITB collapsed 39 percent. It is trying to bottom, but currently in no-man’s … Continued
Bulls are snorting – again. From the Boxing day bottom, the S&P 500 is up 14 percent. Last week, it recaptured 2630 as well as the 50-day. While healthy, the rally has come too far, too fast. Equity bulls deserve … Continued
Post-late December bottom, major US equity indices have rallied strongly to what could turn out to be strong resistance. Odds favor longs begin to lock in profit and/or shorts begin to get active. US stocks suffered quite a rout in … Continued