Since last October’s bottom, tech has led. How it behaves in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate through the stock market. This week’s downward pressure is coming in the backdrop of exuberant sentiment. After several weeks of giving out … Continued
Large-cap bulls are on the rampage. Sell-side analysts are egging them on, as they continue to lower June-quarter earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies. Some sentiment readings look dangerously elevated. Equity bulls are not taking a break. They have been … Continued
After peaking in March and dropping in mid- to-high single-digit percent, the major US equity indices have rallied the last two weeks, ending last week right on the 50-day. A takeout of the average, which was lost three weeks ago, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 20, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 729.1k, down 31.5k. In the futures market, fed funds traders have now reduced rates outlook to three 25-basis-point cuts this year. This is right … Continued
Both the S&P 500 and VIX closed lower last week. This occurred even as the major US equity indices are at/near decent/major support. Right here and now, odds favor the bulls than the bears. Last week, both the VIX index … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 24, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 563.4k, down 147.4k. The FOMC meets next week. After this, there is only one scheduled meeting left this year – on December 12-13. The … Continued
Equity bears attacked where they could potentially have last week. With technicals in their favor, they will try to make further gains this week. It is up to the tech bulls to stop that from happening. Major tech outfits are … Continued
With high-single-digit losses in major US stock indices since mid- to late-July, bulls made it clear last week they are putting their foot down. A reflex rally is probable. The 3Q earnings season begins in earnest later this week, and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 3, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 733.9k, up 1.9k. The FOMC minutes for the September 19-20 meeting will be reported on Wednesday. As expected, the fed funds rate was left … Continued
After being under pressure for a couple of months, the S&P 500 has approached an area of potentially crucial support. This takes place even as pessimism is heavy in the options market. From its July 27th high of 4607 through … Continued