US consumer spending is holding up, even as manufacturing is under tremendous pressure. Consumers have been dipping into savings owed to loads of government stimulus post-Covid. Bank deposits remain healthy but at the same time the rate of change year-over-year … Continued
US home prices are through the roof. But homeowners are not rushing to tap their equity. Their balance sheet has improved thanks to all the stimulus money post-pandemic. This creates a nice cushion to fall back on especially when home … Continued
This market wants to rally. Plain and simple. In a seasonally favorable period, Friday’s red-hot CPI report was embraced by equity bulls. The S&P 500 is itching to break out. If Powell on Wednesday sounds more hawkish that currently priced … Continued
On FOMC day, major equity indices posted fresh highs. Bulls were assured by Chair Powell that the Fed will start tapering but is in no rush to take the interest-rate punch bowl away. Yet another session, yet another high! On … Continued
Last March, the Fed essentially urged investors to take on risk and go up the risk curve. They have obliged. Leverage is high in the system. This works as long as the prevailing upward momentum is in place. When a … Continued
One of the hallmarks of the current U.S. recovery has been conflicting signals coming out of the job market. The unemployment rate is low – nearly cut in half from 10 percent in October 2009 to 5.1 percent in August. … Continued
U.S. consumer spending, accounting for >2/3rds of economy, key to growth Over last eight years, bank deposits have grown 80 percent But interest income suppressed due to ZIRP Do consumers always benefit from low interest rates? At first glance, that … Continued
Nice pickup in U.S. C&I loans in recent months, but… From time QE started, banks’ excess reserves at Fed have quadrupled Odds of these reserves making way into economy essentially nil as loan demand weak In recent months, there has … Continued