Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.9k, down 23.4k. The FOMC meets next week. A 75-basis-point hike is baked in, with futures traders assigning an 82-percent probability for that move. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 9, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 286.5k, down 9k. Non-commercials slightly cut back net shorts in 10-year note futures. At 286,478 contracts, holdings remain elevated. In the week before, as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 2, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 295.5k, up 95.6k. No sooner did the 10-year treasury yield breach low-2.70s than it was reclaimed. This support goes back to April. Ordinarily, once … Continued
US stocks in general sold off last week, but the lows of Wednesday and Thursday were bought, with Friday’s rally the icing on the cake. This took place amidst June’s red-hot CPI report and disappointing earnings from JPM. As 2Q … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 12, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 108.4k, down 62.1k. There was some jawboning this week. On Wednesday, inflation measured by the consumer price index showed consumer prices in June surged … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 14, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 205.5k, down 60.7k. The Federal Reserve this week raised the fed funds rate by 75 basis points to a range of 1.5 percent to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 17, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 160.1k, up 74.1k. FOMC minutes for the May 3-4 meeting will be out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 50 basis … Continued
US stocks have come under immense downward pressure of late. Amidst this came signs late last week that a relief was overdue. Several indicators are languishing in oversold territory, an unwinding of which could unleash upward pressure for stocks. The … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 10, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 86k, down 61.6k. It is probable the 10-year treasury yield made an important high this week. Rates touched 3.17 percent intraday Monday before reversing … Continued
Major US equity indices rallied big last week, closing out right at, or near, important resistance, including moving averages, Fibonacci resistance and breakdown backtest. Concurrently, VIX is sitting on a rising trend line from early January. The S&P 500 (4463) … Continued