Futures Traders Expect 250 Basis Points Of Easing In Next 1 Year – Equities Not Buying It

August’s CPI report dealt a fatal blow to market hopes for a 50-basis-point cut next week. Nevertheless, futures traders are betting that the Fed would lower rates by 250 basis points in the next one year, beginning with 25 basis … Continued

It Is Understandable Why Russell 2000 Remains Under Its Nov ’21 Record High

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

With mixed macro messages, small-caps, which tend to have high domestic economic exposure, struggle to gain traction. The Russell 2000 remains under its November 2021 high. The sell-side is very optimistic about next year’s earnings, but it is prudent to … Continued

Equity Bulls Dread 1st Rate Cut, As This Could Touch Off ‘Sell The News’ Phenomenon

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

After June’s CPI Thursday, markets are heavily betting a September rate cut is all but certain. For equity bulls, who have rallied the indices massively on the back of ‘a rate cut is coming,’ this could very well mark a … Continued

With Persistent Failure To Capitalize On Favorable Setups, Bears Wonder If Opportunity At Hand Will Be Different

As the rally from the lows of October persists, there are fewer and fewer bears around. In the last several months, they have had several opportunities to gain the upper hand, but to no avail. Another opportunity is at hand. … Continued

Equity Bulls Probably Eyeing Wed’s CPI To Give Additional Boost To Weary Indices

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

If Wednesday’s CPI for April cooperates, equity bulls will try to use it to build on last three weeks’ momentum. Major US equity indices have rallied back to just under their all-time highs from March but are giving out signs … Continued

With Big Gains In Stocks, Major Tech Companies On Schedule To Report 4Q23 Earnings, FOMC Likely To Disappoint Equity Bulls

It is an FOMC week. The meeting is taking place at a time when markets are demanding aggressive cuts this year and the Fed is saying ‘no way’. Financial conditions have eased tremendously, and the central bank probably does not … Continued

Doves Fly, Bulls Run, Animal Spirits On Loose

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Equities | 0

Even though Chair Powell said it is far too early to declare victory, he and his team did exactly that yesterday when they caught markets by surprise by making a hard dovish turn. The dot plot now expects up to … Continued

Disinflation Trend In Consumer Inflation Intact, Even As Walmart Makes Ominous Comments As Relates to Demand

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy | 0

October’s CPI report showed continued disinflation since peaking last year at four-decade highs. Concurrently, Walmart, which commands a wide consumer reach with nearly $600 billion in annual sales, rather ominously commented that the company was more cautious than it was … Continued