The 10-year treasury yield more than doubled in five months, completing a measured-move target of an inverse-head-and-shoulders breakout in early January. This is coming at a time when the Fed has signaled it will use both conventional and unconventional tools … Continued
On Thursday morning, February’s CPI will be published. Consumer inflation has gone vertical the past couple of years. Businesses have pricing power, as was evident in Tuesday’s NFIB report. A record 68 percent of small-business owners were able to raise … Continued
Investor sentiment has taken a hit, but major US equity indices are hanging in there – on a relative basis. This is a medium- to long-term worry for bulls. Near-term, they could be looking for opportunities. Possible catalysts include Thursday’s … Continued
Until recently, it looked like the Fed finally had the fortitude to take on inflation head on. Now, the message is getting blurred. Within the FOMC, for every Bullard, there is a Kashkari. Amidst this push-and-pull, late-January lows on major … Continued
The 10-year treasury yield ended with a weekly shooting star last week, briefly rising above two percent. Only about two and a half months ago, rates were 1.34 percent. The 10-year may be ready to unwind at least some of … Continued
This market wants to rally. Plain and simple. In a seasonally favorable period, Friday’s red-hot CPI report was embraced by equity bulls. The S&P 500 is itching to break out. If Powell on Wednesday sounds more hawkish that currently priced … Continued
US home prices continue to rise at an accelerating pace but may be in the process of cooling down. This can have implications for consumer sentiment, hence consumer spending. In June, home prices nationally shot up 18.6 percent year-over-year. This … Continued
The 2Q earnings season has gotten off strong. Stocks, having already rallied big into it, yawned. This is coming at a time when sentiment remains effusive and some of the tailwinds potentially turning into headwinds. VIX’s monthly chart could be … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 13, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 56k, up 81.6k. One more month in which inflation overshoots the consensus. In June, headline and core CPI jumped 5.3 percent and 4.5 percent … Continued
Consumer sentiment tumbled in March but remains elevated. The latest collapse in stocks probably played a role. Another important variable worth watching is home prices, which for years have risen faster than inflation and have been a big tailwind from … Continued