Amidst Elevated ’18 Estimates, Wide Gap Between GAAP And Non-GAAP

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

As of last Thursday, a little over four-fifths of S&P 500 companies reported 2Q17 results.  Of the 422 companies, 70.1 percent beat on operating earnings, 20.6 percent missed and 9.2 percent met, as per S&P Dow Jones Indices. In the … Continued

U.S. Corporate Bond Issuance To Drop Under New Tax Plan?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

President Trump’s tax plans could potentially impact U.S. corporate bond issuance once – and if – they become law. Annualizing the first four months, U.S. corporations are on pace to increasing bond issuance in double digits this year over 2016. … Continued

Amidst Persistent Downward Revision In S&P 500 Op Earnings, 2018 Starts Out At > $147!

The S&P 500 large cap index trades at 21.3 times operating earnings or 17.4 times or 15.5 times.  Take your pick.  The first one uses trailing 12-month earnings, and the latter two forward. In Chart 1, the red bars are … Continued

Corporate Profits Snap 5 Straight Quarters Of Y/Y ↓ – Will Be Difficult To Sustain Momentum

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

U.S. corporate profits adjusted for inventory and depreciation in 3Q16 grew the most quarter-over-quarter since 2Q14.  They rose 6.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.15 trillion, breaking five consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline (Chart 4).  Profits peaked … Continued

Stocks Vulnerable Near Term Particularly If August Payroll Is Strong

Jackson Hole came and went. At the annual confab, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, last Friday seemed to agree with preceding hawkish messages from three prominent FOMC members – Stanley Fischer, vice-chair, William Dudley, New York Fed president, and John Williams, … Continued

Lot Riding On 2H, Those Lofty Earnings Estimates Better Come Through

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. stocks have done phenomenally well since the February lows.  In less than six months through the intra-day high yesterday, the S&P 500 large cap index has rallied north of 20 percent, the Nasdaq 100 index 22.5 percent, and the … Continued

June Corporate Bond Issuance Slows Down, 2H A Toss-Up

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The pace of U.S. corporate bond issuance slowed in June. Corporations issued $110.8 billion in non-convertible debt and $3 billion in convertible debt last month. Of non-convertible debt, which is what Chart 1 portrays, investment-grade (IG) was $86.8 billion and … Continued

S&P 500 Fails At Crucial Resistance, Bears Smell Opportunity

In 1Q16, the S&P 500 large cap index edged up 0.8 percent.  Not much.  But considering that the year got off on the wrong foot, quickly losing north of 11 percent by January 20th, this was quite a comeback (Chart … Continued