For Equities To Repeat Last Week’s Feat, They Will Need Help From Both FOMC And Tech Earnings This Week

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

In the latter part of last week, tech delivered, helping the major US equity indices rally big. Two issues could make or mar this week. The FOMC meets, and two more tech behemoths report earnings. The FOMC meets this week, … Continued

Hard To Come Up With Scenario In Which Russell 2000 Decisively Breaks Out Of Nearly 2-Year Range

The Russell 2000 had a phenomenal Friday as rate-cut expectations were brought forward to March. Futures traders now expect five cuts next year – unlikely unless the US economy craters, in which case small-caps will take the brunt of the … Continued

S&P 500, Russell 2000 Unable To Meaningfully Build On Recent Breakout, Retest Ahead

Both large- and small-caps have failed to meaningfully build on their recent breakout. They were stopped at important spot and now risk breakout retest. From last October’s low to the July 27th high of 4607, the S&P 500 shot up … Continued

FOMC Meets This Week, With Traders Betting Fed Funds Rate Will End 2023 At 3.63%, Vs Pre-SVB Expectations Of 5.38%

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

It is an FOMC week this week. Fed funds futures expect the one-year tightening cycle to terminate with a 25-basis-point hike this time; by June, the Fed is already expected to ease, with 2023 ending at 3.68 percent and 2024 … Continued

Equity Bulls Later Last Week Used Bad Data To Load Up On Stocks, More Gains Likely Ahead

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Last Thursday, bulls used initial weakness in major equity indices owed to 4Q22 productivity report as an opportunity to buy. Friday, they bought more. More gains are likely ahead. Fed funds futures are very volatile. Traders are actively reacting real … Continued

Higher Rates Not Helpful In Levered Economy, Raising Hopes Of Easing Late Next Year, But Fed’s Hands Are Tied Given Elevated Inflation

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The federal government is up to the gills in debt. Interest payments run up in the billions every year. This was not much of an issue in a low-interest-rate environment. But right now, the Federal Reserve is tightening. Higher rates … Continued

Russell 2000’s Mini-Breakout Needs Confirmation From S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

At least a section of markets is behaving as if July’s job gains is sustainable, and the US economy is not on the verge of falling apart. The Russell 2000 has scored some technical wins, but the S&P 500 and … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 4, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 276.9k, up 63.6k. The December 14-15 FOMC minutes, out Wednesday, revealed that the Fed was more determined to snatch the punch bowl away from … Continued

Selling The Rip And Buying The Dip Within Months-Long Box Has Worked On Russell 2000, Which Is At/Near Crucial Support

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The Russell 2000 has been going back and forth within a rectangle for a while now. Selling the rip and buying the dip within this box has worked. Once again, the index is at/near support. Traders continue to sell the … Continued