Russell 2000’s 250-Point Jump Over 6 Sessions Met With Selling At Potentially Important Technical Level; July Margin Debt Will Be Telling

The Russell 2000’s 250-point surge over six sessions took many by surprise, not the least of which are those who were on the shorting side. This also comes at a time of probable economic deceleration ahead and a question mark … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 637.5k, up 219.6k. Non-commercials showed aggression in raising net shorts in 10-year-note futures to a 19-week high. In the week to January 16th, they … Continued

Long A Laggard Versus Large-Caps, Small-Caps Come Roaring Back – Imminent 2100 Retest Will Be Telling

Small-caps have awoken from their slumber. The Russell 2000 is up 6.6 percent in the last three sessions, with a breakout at 2100. Long a laggard versus large-caps, particularly tech, small-caps’ latest outperformance is raising questions as to if this … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 319.8k, down 47.8k. FOMC minutes for the June 11-12 meeting will be out next Wednesday. It is pretty much a given nothing earth-shattering will … Continued

Action This Week After Nasdaq 100’s Gravestone Doji Last Week Worth Watching

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

The Russell 2000’s continued difficulty at 2100 runs in contrast to one after another high notched by large-cap indices such as the S&P 500. That said, last week’s weekly gravestone doji on the Nasdaq 100 is worth watching. After unsuccessfully … Continued

No Love For Small-Caps, Which Refuse To Respond To Robust Payrolls, Instead Could be Heeding Message Coming Out Of Openings

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Small-caps get no love. They have not for a while. Unlike its large-cap peers that keep making new highs, the Russell 2000 remains substantially below its November 2021 high. The index ceased to respond to solid jobs picture as early … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 388.2k, down 12.8k. The trendline resistance proved too much for bond bears (on price) to overcome. On Wednesday, the 10-year treasury yield touched 4.64 … Continued

Bears Owned Last Thu, Bulls Denied Them Continued Momentum Fri – This Week Is Key

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bears had a great session last Thursday as a bearish engulfing candle developed on several indices, but bulls promptly denied them continued momentum on Friday. This week is key. From last October’s low through last Thursday’s high, the S&P … Continued

Equity Bulls Notch Another Positive Week But Are Probably Not Enthralled By How Thu And Fri Traded

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Last week brought another positive week for equity bulls, with the major US equity indices rallying for a fourth consecutive week. Amidst this, how the indices traded the last two sessions should give the bears some hope. Equity bulls used … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 481.6k, up 48.7k. Non-commercials continued to add to net shorts in 10-year note futures. As of Tuesday, holdings closed at 481,620 contracts, up from … Continued