After Massive Rally Off March Lows And Options Waiving Caution Flag, Johnny-Come-Latelies Risk Holding The Bag

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Overbought on the daily timeframe, major US equity indices are right at, or near, the upper bound of the recent trading range.  Volume has dried up, and bulls are staying put, hoping for a breakout.  Should one come about, there … Continued

Russell 2000 Back Below 1250s; Shorts, Who Have Been Adding, Will Have Strengthened Odds Should 1170s Give Way

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Two weeks after breaking out of 1250s, the Russell 2000 (1233) is back below it.  IWM shorts never bought into the breakout.  They were probably driven more by the sharp deterioration in small-business profit trend.  Longs will be on the … Continued

Tech Rally Propelled By Short Squeeze – For Now, Relief Awaits Bruised Shorts

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Since March lows, large-caps led, and tech led the large-caps.  Short squeeze helped.  Amidst signs of distribution in the Nasdaq 100 the past several sessions, relief likely awaits bruised shorts near term. Shorts have gotten squeezed – for the most … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 49.4k, up 15.3k. In the week ended February 11th, non-commercials held 398,919 net shorts in 10-year note futures.  On the 12th that month, the … Continued

Fundamental Issues Aside, Russel 2000 Breaks Out – As Long As Price Stays Above 1250s, Bulls Deserve Benefit Of Doubt

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

On Monday, the Russell 2000 busted through 1250s.  This has been an important price point going back five years.  Despite lofty earnings expectations for both this year and next, this week’s action is a thumbs-up from markets.  As long as … Continued

After Big 1-Month Rally, S&P 500 And Nasdaq Lose Rising Trend Line From Mar 23rd Low

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Major equity indices hit the wall this week, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq losing a rising trend line from the March 23rd low.  They rallied massively off of that low, and odds favor continued unwinding of daily … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 70.8k, up 9.8k. The Fed is on a mission to provide a backstop to a whole host of assets.  Here is its report card … Continued

Major U.S. Equity Indices Have Rallied To Important Resistance – Bears Likely Get Active

Unless a coronavirus vaccine is miraculously developed at record time, a V-shaped recovery in the economy is not probable.  Yet, stocks seem to be anticipating one.  The Fed is flooding the system with liquidity.  Stocks have rallied massively off of … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 31, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 53k, down 159k. In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went up another $432.2 billion to $4.77 trillion – a … Continued