Fed Increasingly Eyeing New Stimulus Tools, Stocks’ Reaction Function Key

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

US reliance on debt is growing.  Having already just about used up the conventional monetary tool and a massive balance sheet, the Fed is looking for new tools – a la Japan.  Stocks’ reaction function to Japanification is key. At … Continued

Reversing Earlier Cautious Attitude, Foreigners Increasingly A Tailwind To U.S. Stocks

posted in: Equities | 0

Foreigners, who had been cutting exposure for a while, have been warming up to U.S. stocks of late.  Bulls obviously would like this to continue.  Historically, foreigners’ activity and the S&P 500 have shown a tendency to move in tandem. … Continued

In/Leading Up To Seasonally Favorable Period, Greed Takes Over

Major US equity indices continue to attract bids and are trading at fresh highs.  Greed rules, with several metrics at nosebleed levels.  In a seasonally favorable period, crazy can get crazier – at least that is what bulls hope.  How … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 183.5k, up 34.7k. Interesting dynamics are in play in the sovereign bond market. In the 12-months to October, US budget deficit crossed $1 trillion.  … Continued

Bulls, With Momentum, Need Several Non-Cooperating Metrics To Cooperate Better, Else…

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

With momentum on their side, equity bulls hope metrics such as money-market funds, margin debt and even foreign buying of US stocks begin to cooperate better.  In this scenario, volatility, already suppressed, is vulnerable to another leg lower.  Non-commercials are … Continued

Bulls Unable To Break Past 3020s On S&P 500, Breakout Retest At 2940s Likely Near Term

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

The bull market is more than a decade old.  Several metrics are at/near record territory.  The energizer bunny keeps marching on.  In recent sessions, bulls have faced difficulty taking out 3020s and may need to defend breakout retest at 2940s. … Continued