With momentum on their side, equity bulls hope metrics such as money-market funds, margin debt and even foreign buying of US stocks begin to cooperate better. In this scenario, volatility, already suppressed, is vulnerable to another leg lower. Non-commercials are … Continued
Medium- to long-term, both margin debt and foreigners’ purchases of US stocks need to cooperate for the S&P 500 to rally to a new high. Near term, the daily is itching to go lower. Bulls Tuesday were denied at trend-line … Continued
The bull market is more than a decade old. Several metrics are at/near record territory. The energizer bunny keeps marching on. In recent sessions, bulls have faced difficulty taking out 3020s and may need to defend breakout retest at 2940s. … Continued
Stars may be lining up near term for equity bulls, but medium-term worries remain. Margin debt and corporate buybacks are no longer providing the kind of tailwind they did until recently. Buybacks simply collapsed in 2Q19. With 94.9 percent of … Continued
Margin debt fully cooperated with a 6.9-percent June rally in the S&P 500. Bulls obviously hope this continues this month. They would also want to see the recent increase in bullish investor sentiment pick up steam. After dropping 6.6 percent … Continued
The S&P 500 rallied to a new high last week. Since January last year, it has more or less treaded water, although there have been higher highs. Several potential sources of tailwind are missing in action. Corporate buybacks are the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 18, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 403k, up 37k. Yet another intraday low on the 10-year Treasury yield this week! Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October, there has been … Continued
Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from record highs. They have done so without much help from foreigners and margin debt. Bulls deserve kudos, but then again, how long can this go on? US indices are within … Continued
The S&P 500 is within striking distance of a new high, even as margin debt is substantially below last May’s record high. Concurrently, unlike in the past, VIX refuses to sustainably drop to high single digits/low double digits. Margin debt … Continued
Stocks rallied for three months in defiance of deteriorating macro data. By essentially putting an end to the tightening cycle, the Fed is acknowledging this. Stocks could be the next. What just happened? Many are probably asking that question after … Continued