Major US equity indices continue to attract bids and are trading at fresh highs. Greed rules, with several metrics at nosebleed levels. In a seasonally favorable period, crazy can get crazier – at least that is what bulls hope. How … Continued
Buybacks by S&P 500 companies continue at an aggressive pace. This makes up for shortfalls coming from margin debt and money market assets. Help of late is also coming from the Fed. Buybacks snapped back up in 3Q19. After a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 183.5k, up 34.7k. Interesting dynamics are in play in the sovereign bond market. In the 12-months to October, US budget deficit crossed $1 trillion. … Continued
Amidst new highs in major US equity indices, two important data points came out Monday – one positive, one not so. Foreign buying – or a lack thereof – is an important component in US stocks. A relationship between the … Continued
With momentum on their side, equity bulls hope metrics such as money-market funds, margin debt and even foreign buying of US stocks begin to cooperate better. In this scenario, volatility, already suppressed, is vulnerable to another leg lower. Non-commercials are … Continued
Medium- to long-term, both margin debt and foreigners’ purchases of US stocks need to cooperate for the S&P 500 to rally to a new high. Near term, the daily is itching to go lower. Bulls Tuesday were denied at trend-line … Continued
The bull market is more than a decade old. Several metrics are at/near record territory. The energizer bunny keeps marching on. In recent sessions, bulls have faced difficulty taking out 3020s and may need to defend breakout retest at 2940s. … Continued
Stars may be lining up near term for equity bulls, but medium-term worries remain. Margin debt and corporate buybacks are no longer providing the kind of tailwind they did until recently. Buybacks simply collapsed in 2Q19. With 94.9 percent of … Continued
Margin debt fully cooperated with a 6.9-percent June rally in the S&P 500. Bulls obviously hope this continues this month. They would also want to see the recent increase in bullish investor sentiment pick up steam. After dropping 6.6 percent … Continued
The S&P 500 rallied to a new high last week. Since January last year, it has more or less treaded water, although there have been higher highs. Several potential sources of tailwind are missing in action. Corporate buybacks are the … Continued