Markit forecast of sub-200k private payroll growth this month a surprise U.S. unemployment claims, near historical lows, need catalyst to begin to move up Oil-heavy states are yet to see jobs impact of drop in crude, but only a matter … Continued
Market expectations for rate hike next year runs risk of disappointment With monetary quiver nearly empty, Fed very much focused on wealth effect Job even more difficult, given adverse effects of cheap money beginning to loom Markets are sending mixed … Continued
2014 on track for 3rd successive year of $300bn-plus high-yield issuance; energy 15% of junk market By not cutting 30mn bpd production target, OPEC ready to lock horns with shale oil As both sides play game of ‘who will blink … Continued
Steep drop in unemployment rate typically would suggest upward wage pressure Shrinkage in labor force takes bargaining power away from employees Corporations taking increasing share of national income vs labor It has been a while National Federation of Independent Business … Continued
Public highway and street construction spending flat last six years Average age of private fixed structures 26-plus in 2013, highest since 1954 U.S. ran up $9tn in cumulative deficit in 2008-2013, with emphasis on consumption We are aware how in … Continued
Revised 2Q14 U.S. GDP estimates revived hopes of capX revival U.S. corporates have continued to disappoint as relates to adding capital NFIB capX plans in September show why that is not likely to change anytime soon When the preliminary estimates … Continued
Fed has openly discussed benefits of wealth effect; now adds another tool – talking down dollar Six years into recovery post-crisis, U.S. economy yet to witness escape velocity Dovish FOMC message fails to ignite sustained rally in US equities These … Continued
Debtors prefer inflation; the more the better Fed, ECB and BoJ yearning for higher inflation, but latter is no-show Low inflation gives Fed more flexibility when to hike rates, which has investment implications There is no shortage of issues that … Continued
The sun always rises in the east and sets in the west. But in life, things are not always this straightforward. Besides black and white, there is this thing called gray. And in the gray territory, things can get confusing. … Continued
As we await the FOMC statement this afternoon, the adjacent chart is apropos. In it, US federal debt has been plotted against interest payments (seasonally adjusted annual rates) of the federal government. The latter is calculated as a share of … Continued