Depending on how mature an economic cycle is, different sectors, and industries within them, act differently. Some lead, some lag, yet others are coincident. Investors gravitate toward sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary when they are more optimistic and … Continued
Small-cap shares are lagging. This is no news. Small-caps have been a topic of discussion on this blog several times before. They have lagged their large-cap brethren, the S&P 500 Index, since early March. That was when money started to … Continued
There is probably no other price as important as the price of money – that is, interest rates. They are what grease the wheels of an economy. Simplistically, when rates are high, people are incentivized to save more. When they … Continued
Enough ink has been spilled on how in recent months major indices – and sectors/industries within them – have been diverging from each other. For two and a half months beginning late February/early March, previously risk-on favorites such as solar, … Continued
Jobs have been relatively hard to come by in the current economic recovery. From the January 2008 high of 138.37mn, U.S. non-farm payroll nosedived all the way to 129.66mn by February 2010, for a loss of 8.7mn. It took four-plus … Continued
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s July survey of fund managers was out the other day, and shows how lop-sided investor sentiment is at the moment. A net 61 percent are now overweight equities. The reading is highest since early … Continued
Heard yesterday on Bloomberg Radio that U.S. consumption of boats and RVs is through the roof; RV sales are back to pre-Great Recession days, even as sales of boats are below that watermark but remain very healthy. These items tend … Continued
The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index fell four percent last week. In the futures market, large speculators could not have ridden it better. They have been net short since early April – by both cutting longs and raising shorts – … Continued
Short interest continues to inch up. By June-end, Nasdaq’s went up 0.6 percent period-over-period to 8.9bn – highest since end-September 2008 – and NYSE’s edged up 0.7 percent p/p to 14.6bn. What is going on in the Naz in particular … Continued
The U.S. jobs market seems to be on the mend. Or so it seems. June produced the fifth consecutive month of 200k-plus non-farm jobs, for a monthly average of 248k. The last time the economy churned out five consecutive months … Continued