Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 1, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 13.5k, up 85.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.72 percent) remains rangebound between 0.57 percent and 0.74 percent. There was some excitement among bond bears … Continued
There are four more months before 2020 is out, but US corporate bond issuance already set a new record. The Fed’s new policy under which it buys corporate bonds – both investment-grade and high-yield – has lit a fire under … Continued
US manufacturing is coming back with a vengeance. Orders are soaring and inventories remain low, raising the odds that the recovery in manufacturing has life left in it. That said, August’s 56 is up substantially from April’s 41.5. Historically, the … Continued
The same way investor fear was pervasive in March, greed is reflected in several metrics currently. Reversal risks are very high medium- to long-term. Near-term, how VIX behaves in the next several sessions will decide if sentiment gets ever frothier. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 72.3k, down 14.7k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.73 percent) is itching to break out of a five-and-a-half-month rectangle between 0.57 percent and 0.74 percent. … Continued
Investors Intelligence bulls hit 60 percent this week – a 99-week high. This was still not good for a bulls-to-bears ratio of four. In the event the current ratio of three-plus extends to four or higher, the S&P 500 can … Continued
It is easy to see why bears get tempted to short. Fundamentally, things are ugly. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has essentially backstopped stock prices. Shorts have gotten squeezed over and over. Bruised tech shorts are still not … Continued
The recovery in the economy from recent lows has been uneven. In equities, the S&P 500 (large cap) rallied to a new high last Friday, while the Russell 2000 (small cap) was rejected at a crucial resistance. Amidst this, several … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 18, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 87k, up 81.5k. Last Thursday’s intraday high of 0.73 percent just about tested the upper bound of a five-month range, in which rates went … Continued
Foreigners in the aggregate have been dumping Treasury notes and bonds. The Fed has been buying these securities, but less and less so. Given the soaring budget deficit and the need to issue new debt, the status quo cannot continue. … Continued