Tech stocks rallied massively in the past four months, with the leaders outpacing the soldiers by a wide margin. Last week, post-earnings reaction to several tech stocks including MSFT indicated a ‘sell the news’ phenomenon. This week, four of the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 29k, down 29.1k. Tuesday, the FOMC begins a two-day meeting. This will be the fifth of eight scheduled meetings this year. There were two … Continued
US equity indices have had massive gains in the past four months. In the options market, calls heavily outweigh puts – to a point where it is beginning to look dangerously lop-sided. If past is prologue, during such times it … Continued
Last week, the Russell 2000 jumped 3.6 percent, while the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.8 percent. If investors are indeed moving away from tech toward small-caps, this is no good news for markets as a whole. The five largest US companies … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 58.1k, up 14.9k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.63 percent) continues to bounce along the lower bound of a four-month range between 0.73 percent and … Continued
The Russell 2000 Wednesday broke out of 1450s, although bulls were forced to retest the breakout in the very next session. Wednesday’s low-volume breakout comes against the background of a collapse in small-cap earnings this year and elevated optimism next … Continued
June’s CPI was reported yesterday. Inflation behaves well. This makes the Fed’s job easier to continue to pour liquidity into the system. All hell breaks loose once inflation refuses to cooperate – whenever that is. After three successive months of … Continued
In the latest period, Nasdaq/QQQ shorts went on an offensive. The index/ETF rallied to a fresh high last Friday. Longs are salivating over the jump in short interest as yet another squeeze opportunity. In the past, zealous bears have repeatedly … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 7, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 43.2k, up 12.2k. The 10-year Treasury yield is clinging on to support. It shed four basis points this week to close at 0.63 percent; … Continued
Already-levered US corporations are levering up even more. The first half this year already matched issuance of last year. This is taking place even as corporate debt is at record high, with several metrics well into extended territory. Momentum in … Continued