The Fed is selling its treasury holdings, foreigners are buying. Non-commercials are shorting 10-year note futures, the US budget deficit is narrowing. Amidst these supply-demand dynamics, the 10-year T-yield is at risk of forming a potentially bearish technical pattern. The … Continued
Until last Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Jerome Powell, it was looking like US equities would continue to rally, but post-speech, the potentially rosy outlook got turned on its head. From the June 17 intraday bottom of 3637 to the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 23, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.2k, up 18k. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, strongly pushed back against any notion of a pivot. Post-July … Continued
Homebuilder optimism is catching up with weakening home sales. Starts have responded and inventory is sharply rising – a byproduct of rapidly appreciating prices and a rise in mortgage rates. Buyers need to see relief on both these fronts before … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 16, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 363.1k, up 76.7k. Non-commercials continued to add to net shorts in 10-year note futures. As of last Tuesday, they held 363,128 contracts, up from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 9, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 286.5k, down 9k. Non-commercials slightly cut back net shorts in 10-year note futures. At 286,478 contracts, holdings remain elevated. In the week before, as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 2, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 295.5k, up 95.6k. No sooner did the 10-year treasury yield breach low-2.70s than it was reclaimed. This support goes back to April. Ordinarily, once … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 19, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 108.7k, up 333. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fifth of the eight scheduled meetings this year. The Federal Reserve will … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 12, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 108.4k, down 62.1k. There was some jawboning this week. On Wednesday, inflation measured by the consumer price index showed consumer prices in June surged … Continued
The Fed is using both conventional and unconventional tools to deal with surging inflation. This is bound to impact economic activity, which is already showing signs of deceleration. Inflation could be the next shoe to drop. Any signs of this … Continued