Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 6, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 84.6k, up 174.4k. On March 17, the 10-year treasury yield broke out of 1.63 percent, subsequently rallying to 1.77 percent by the 30th. Rates … Continued
The 10-year T-yield is itching to move lower – at least near term – if nothing else just to unwind its overbought condition. This could have implications for tech shares and gold, among others. The 10-year treasury yield is beginning … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 30, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 89.8k, up 102.1k. Minutes for the March 16-17 FOMC meeting will be out next Wednesday. Not much extra color is expected out of these … Continued
US home prices continue to gallop ahead. There has been a marked increase in owners’ equity. This should buoy consumer sentiment and help the economy. The risk is when – not if – the trend reverses and goes the other … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 23, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 12.3k, up 8.2k. The 10-year treasury yield enjoyed several breakouts this year – out of one percent early January, 1.2 percent mid-February and 1.4 … Continued
Gold peaked last August, before beginning a strong downtrend. Amidst this, gold bugs have put their foot down at dual support, rallying the metal the last two weeks. Important resistance lies ahead. Real yields likely come to gold’s aid in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 4.1k, up 50.2k. The FOMC left the benchmark rate between zero and 25 basis points this week. Also left unchanged was the asset buying … Continued
The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting later today. Rates on the short end of the yield curve are behaving but the long end is perking up. This is taking place at a time when foreigners are aggressively selling treasury notes … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 9, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 46.1k, down 49.5k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s second meeting. Six more remain – the scheduled ones, that is. A … Continued
Fed chair made it clear last week that things have not deteriorated enough for them to act. In this atmosphere, the 10-year rate can head toward two percent. Equities, in all probability, will not like that, even though they are … Continued